Ep. 040 - Francisco Martin-Rayo: How AI Is Forecasting the Future of Food
Francisco Martin-Rayo
CEO at Helios AI
Why does your avocado cost $3? And what does that have to do with climate change, cybersecurity, and geopolitical conflict? In this fascinating conversation, host Kristin King sits down with Francisco Martin-Rayo to connect dots most of us never see, revealing how our food system is far more fragile and interconnected than we realize.
Francisco's journey is unconventional: from studying radicalization in refugee camps in Yemen, Pakistan, and Somalia, to starting an NGO providing university scholarships, to now working at the intersection of AI, climate risk, and food security as CEO of Helios AI. But is the thread connecting it all? Solving complex, urgent problems that affect real people.
In this conversation, you'll explore:
Why we need to thank farmers more (and understand the razor-thin margins they survive on)
How climate disruptions, cyber-attacks, and supply chain vulnerabilities cascade through our food system
The privilege of food security, and what happens when it breaks down
Why AI and technology might offer hope for preventing food crises
The connection between conflict zones, water scarcity, and what's on your plate
Why gratitude and presence matter when we sit down to eat
This isn't just about predicting prices, it’s about understanding the fragile systems that feed us, the people behind our food, and how we can build a more resilient future. Whether you're concerned about climate change, fascinated by supply chains, or simply want to be more mindful about your meals, this conversation will change how you think about food.
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Guest Contact Information:
LinkedIn: Francisco Martin-Rayo
Company: Helios AI - Helios is your ultimate partner for predicting price and supply availability for agricultural commodities. Our approach is intuitive yet powerful: we equip our customers with the market intelligence they need to get ahead of price movements and supply disruptions.
📰 Article: “The Rise of Mangoes in Sicily: Adapting Crops to a Warmer Europe”
📘 Francisco’s book: “Winning The Minds: Travels Through the Terrorist Recruiting Grounds of Yemen, Pakistan and the Somali Border” (Link)
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Help people experiencing Food Insecurity:
Local Harvest (Link) – sponsor a family with a crop or farm share program.
Find Help (Link) – find your local food bank or pantry, or other food assistance services.
Donate meals, support hospitality groups at your place of worship, or schools.
Episode Key Highlights
00:01:23 — Food & Family Connection
00:08:43 — From Tech to Agriculture
00:09:42 — Facing a Hotter Planet
00:12:47 — Mangoes in Italy
00:17:02 — Tracking 250,000 Data Sources
00:18:33 — We’re Focusing on the Wrong Climate Conversation
00:22:33 — You Vote with Your Dollars
00:24:50 — Trucking Bees Across the Country
00:31:04 — The Power of Predictive Data
00:34:29 — Coffee Trees and Financial Barriers
00:38:54 — Cyber, Climate, and the Future of Conflict
00:40:07 — Solving Problems, Not Selling Fear
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📘 Sign up for early updates, exclusive previews, and launch news of Kristin’s book, “Securing What Feeds Us” (working title) here.
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🎤 Bites and Bytes Podcast Info:
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🛡️ About AnzenSage & AnzenOT
AnzenSage is a cybersecurity advisory firm specializing in security resilience for the food, agriculture, zoo, and aquarium industries. AnzenSage offers practical, strategic guidance to help organizations anticipate risks and build resilience. Learn more about their offerings at anzensage.com.
AnzenOT: Industrial Cyber Risk — Simple. Smart. Swift.
AnzenOT is the SaaS risk management platform built to bring clarity and control to Operational Technology (OT) cybersecurity. Designed for critical infrastructure sectors, AnzenOT translates technical risk into clear, actionable insight for decision-makers. Explore the platform at anzenot.com.
For demo requests or inquiries, email stuart@anzenot.com or kristin@anzenot.com
Listen to full episode :
Episode Guide:
00:00:20 — Episode Introduction
00:01:23 — Favorite Food & Family Traditions
00:04:07 — Francisco Introduces Himself & Helios AI Overview
00:05:25 — The Reality of Farming and Climate Optimism
00:08:43 — Francisco’s Background and Path to Helios
00:09:42 — The Harsh Truth About Climate Change and Food Security
00:10:16 — Mid-Episode Break: Marriage Update & 13,000 Downloads
00:11:13 — The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Food Systems
00:12:47 — Mangoes in Italy: Climate Adaptation Case Study
00:14:06 — Balancing Regenerative Agriculture and Genetic Innovation
00:15:22 — Food, Culture, and Identity in a Changing Climate
00:16:45 — Invasive Species, Data Collection & Global Risk Tracking
00:17:02 — The Power of AI & Data in Predicting Food Disruptions
00:18:33 — Why Climate Conversations Are Failing
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00:00:20 Kristin King
And welcome back to the Bites and Bytes Podcast.
00:00:24 Kristin King
I am your host, Kristin King.
00:00:26 Kristin King
That's right, new name, same mission, more on that during the break.
00:00:32 Kristin King
Today's episode is one that hits right at the intersection of technology, climate, and the food that sustains us.
00:00:39 Kristin King
My guest, Francisco Martin-Rayo, CEO and co-founder of Helios AI, a company using artificial intelligence to forecast agricultural prices, supply disruptions, and climate risk long before it happens.
00:00:53 Kristin King
We talk about how AI can actually predict food shortages, why climate change is forcing farmers to adapt faster than ever, and what happens when the systems that feed us start to break.
00:01:04 Kristin King
It's an eye-opening conversation that connects global markets, dinner tables, and human stories behind both.
00:01:11 Kristin King
So grab your coffee or tea and do curiosity.
00:01:14 Kristin King
This one's going to make you think differently about what's on your plate.
00:01:19 Kristin King
Enjoy.
00:01:23 Kristin King
In Bites and Bites tradition, we're going to start with favorite food and favorite food memory.
00:01:28 Kristin King
So go for it.
00:01:29 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah.
00:01:30 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's kind of a random favorite food.
00:01:31 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So my grandmother was a refugee from Spain.
00:01:34 Francisco Martin-Rayo
She came over from Spain to Mexico during the Civil War.
00:01:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And she used to make lasagna, which is not what you would expect a woman from Barcelona to make.
00:01:41 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But she used to make it as a special dish for me.
00:01:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And she used to make the pasta and the bechamel sauce and the meat sauce all from scratch.
00:01:47 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And we started making it during Christmas as kind of like the family tradition.
00:01:51 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so my wife is Kurdish.
00:01:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I'm kind of Mexican.
00:01:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I guess my grandparents were from Spain.
00:01:56 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so it's probably the weirdest Christmas dish for a Mexican Curtish family to have is lasagna.
00:02:01 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But it's been really nice to have that almost like common history, right?
00:02:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
In terms of what I was fed by my grandparents and what I'm now feeding my children and hopefully what I'll feed my grandchildren one day.
00:02:11 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So that's been a really happy memory recently.
00:02:13 Kristin King
That sounds like a great Christmas meal, to be honest.
00:02:15 Kristin King
I mean, you don't have to go.
00:02:16 Francisco Martin-Rayo
The dashamel really makes all the difference.
00:02:18 Francisco Martin-Rayo
If you make it from scratch, it's delicious.
00:02:19 Kristin King
A lot of people skip that step.
00:02:21 Kristin King
And I think it's a super important step.
00:02:23 Kristin King
I haven't had like a proper lasagna in I don't even know how long, to be honest.
00:02:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's not that hard.
00:02:27 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, it was a little daunting at the beginning, but I prefer that to ricotta.
00:02:30 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I don't love ricotta.
00:02:31 Kristin King
Really?
00:02:32 Kristin King
Actually, I do love ricotta, though, in general.
00:02:35 Kristin King
No, that's fantastic.
00:02:36 Kristin King
And that's also probably tied to your favorite food memory then, is because it's with family and together, or unless it's not.
00:02:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
No, that's it.
00:02:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think it's the food, right?
00:02:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think it's really nice to have your whole family sit around a table and eat.
00:02:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They call it, in Spanish, sometimes it's called sore mesa, which is
00:02:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
after the food is gone, you're still lingering around the table and chatting and having more wine and eating now with whatever's left over that's kind of cold.
00:03:00 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Just really happy memories around that.
00:03:02 Kristin King
I love that.
00:03:03 Kristin King
That's like one of my favorite things to do with people is after we've eaten, we never get off the table.
00:03:06 Kristin King
We just sit there and just, like you said, pick on whatever's left over.
00:03:09 Kristin King
If it's like the bread or whatever cold meal or.
00:03:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, and like an hour in, you're taking like the cold bread, you're dipping in the cold lasagna, it's fine.
00:03:17 Kristin King
Yeah, I love that actually.
00:03:18 Kristin King
And then, you know, of course the wine's moving around or whatever coffee's coming out or whatever's happening.
00:03:22 Kristin King
Yeah.
00:03:23 Kristin King
Those are great memories.
00:03:24 Kristin King
We usually cleared the table of food.
00:03:26 Kristin King
Well, we kept a little food bits and we would start games.
00:03:29 Kristin King
So games would start and the conversations would continue.
00:03:32 Kristin King
And it was always tiles was the game that we used to play with my grandparents.
00:03:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Oh, I like that.
00:03:37 Kristin King
Yeah, now that I've taught it to my stepsons, so now, of course, they're beating me really badly, actually.
00:03:42 Kristin King
It's fine.
00:03:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's the goal, right?
00:03:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
The next generation should be better than we are.
00:03:46 Kristin King
It's fine.
00:03:47 Kristin King
I feel like my grandfather's smiling and he's laughing, that good old hearty laugh that he has when I'm losing.
00:03:51 Kristin King
So it's okay.
00:03:53 Kristin King
But that's what it's about, right?
00:03:56 Kristin King
It's about the connection.
00:03:57 Kristin King
It's about the people.
00:03:58 Kristin King
That's what food does for us.
00:03:59 Kristin King
It's besides the nourishment.
00:04:01 Kristin King
Yeah, that's what's great.
00:04:02 Kristin King
I love that.
00:04:03 Kristin King
Now I'm craving lasagna, so thank you for that.
00:04:04 Kristin King
You're going to have to take care of that problem.
00:04:07 Kristin King
But go ahead and introduce yourself so everybody knows who you are.
00:04:10 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, I'm Francisco Martinreo.
00:04:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I'm the CEO and co-founder of Helios Artificial Intelligence.
00:04:14 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We are the preeminent climate risk platform.
00:04:17 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We have predicted 90% of all agricultural disruptions for 64 commodities across 85 countries, and we predict
00:04:23 Francisco Martin-Rayo
the price of agricultural commodities five times better than industry averages, which is really awesome.
00:04:28 Kristin King
And I'm sure most people probably look at you and say, okay, then you can tell us how much an avocado is going to cost.
00:04:32 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That is exactly what we do.
00:04:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yes, that is on the platform.
00:04:34 Kristin King
Yes.
00:04:35 Kristin King
And I'm sure that hopefully nobody blames you for that price or it gives you a hard time when you tell them what it is, if that ever comes up in conversation, because people get very uppity about avocado prices of all things.
00:04:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, they've been pretty crazy.
00:04:46 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, the other night, I think I paid like $3 for an avocado.
00:04:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I said, well, this is.
00:04:49 Kristin King
You need to come out my way since we're both in Virginia because I only paid.
00:04:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And you're further away from the hub, I think.
00:04:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Interesting.
00:04:57 Kristin King
I am.
00:04:58 Kristin King
Actually, no, I'm actually not.
00:04:59 Kristin King
There is a distribution center very close to me because it's the last city that before you head out into the western part of West Virginia.
00:05:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That might be why, yeah.
00:05:08 Kristin King
So yeah, and actually I know that there's a lot of groceries, the hubs that are coming into this area, that the distribution system in this area is decent.
00:05:15 Kristin King
Not to mention farm to table is very close here because it's still agricultural out of this area.
00:05:19 Kristin King
So I mean, I generally think that that's good.
00:05:22 Kristin King
You want to be closer.
00:05:24 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think it's a wonderful thing.
00:05:25 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We're actually, we have a very good partnership with a farm out in Middleburg.
00:05:29 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So we take the team to visit.
00:05:30 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We're tracking to see how climate is impacting the different crops and the decisions they make.
00:05:34 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's an incredible business.
00:05:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, it's like the most, you have to be the most optimistic person in the world to be a farmer because everything is perfect.
00:05:41 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You make like 5%.
00:05:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
If anything, anything goes wrong in that season, you're done.
00:05:46 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Like you're just at a loss.
00:05:47 Kristin King
And also all the hats that they wear, the fact that they have to be like meteorologists and like midwives and
00:05:53 Kristin King
and plumbers and fabrications and engineers.
00:05:56 Kristin King
It's wild how much what they do.
00:05:58 Kristin King
And the aptitude is so high.
00:06:00 Kristin King
It's not just like I put seed in ground and I water.
00:06:03 Kristin King
It's so many other factors to it.
00:06:05 Kristin King
Marketing, their tech, they do cyber.
00:06:08 Kristin King
Like there's so many aspects to it.
00:06:10 Kristin King
And nobody knows.
00:06:11 Kristin King
That's the thing that's so hard that nobody knows all the things they do or how your food gets to you because our modern world has given us such privilege that we don't even understand where our food comes from at all.
00:06:20 Kristin King
And it's frustrating, but also
00:06:23 Kristin King
It's also kind of like amazing that we've done that system, but also it's such a big system and it's really common.
00:06:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It is, it is.
00:06:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I would encourage everyone of your listeners, right?
00:06:31 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, go visit a farm.
00:06:32 Kristin King
Yes, please.
00:06:32 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Not like an apple picking farm, like a proper farm.
00:06:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They love, typically, right?
00:06:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They love having people over.
00:06:38 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You can pay, you know, visitors pass, you can buy some fresh eggs and all that stuff.
00:06:41 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It makes an enormous difference.
00:06:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It'll be really cool.
00:06:43 Kristin King
It really does.
00:06:44 Kristin King
And yeah, agreed.
00:06:45 Kristin King
If you do want to go to like the trend of your little like pick your flowers, pick your, you know, whatever, go hang out with a cow, that's fine.
00:06:53 Kristin King
Go for it.
00:06:54 Kristin King
I know that there's a, I think there's a ranch, technically a ranch, a producer of beef that's somewhere between here and there in our area that they do these amazing like tours of their facility as well as they do a whole like beef tasting.
00:07:08 Kristin King
So they do like, yeah, they do like, I think they're a Kobe beef farm and they will do this like aged tasting.
00:07:14 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, I mean, it's a.
00:07:16 Kristin King
Little pricey, but I was like, that's pretty cool.
00:07:19 Kristin King
And maybe appreciate it.
00:07:20 Kristin King
I mean, they're going to spend some money to eat some steak, but it's,
00:07:23 Kristin King
can't get any fresher, honestly.
00:07:25 Kristin King
And if you're into that, like that's really cool.
00:07:27 Kristin King
And there's so many vineyards in the area and there's so much agriculture in our zone.
00:07:32 Kristin King
It's so amazing.
00:07:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, Virginia is really wonderful.
00:07:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I did read this interesting study as well that says if you actually get primarily or all 100% grass fed beef, the saturated fat content is lower than grain fed.
00:07:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so it's actually much healthier for you to eat that type of red meat.
00:07:47 Kristin King
Yeah, and it's interesting because a lot of people don't know that all cattle is actually finished on grass.
00:07:52 Kristin King
So it really is
00:07:53 Kristin King
grass fed in some regards, not fully.
00:07:55 Kristin King
I guess there's some different layers and rules to this.
00:07:58 Kristin King
And forgive me to all the ranchers that are listening because I have not asked the right questions because I have several ranchers that I now speak to quite regularly.
00:08:05 Kristin King
And they remind me that cows are finished on grass.
00:08:07 Kristin King
And I'm like, oh, like it's like almost like, duh, I should have known that.
00:08:10 Kristin King
Like that makes sense.
00:08:11 Kristin King
But like also like I'm an idiot because I don't live on a ranch, you know, and I don't know these things because I'm so far removed from my food system.
00:08:18 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So yeah, it's exactly that point, right?
00:08:20 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You know, what the chicken's finished on, et cetera, you know?
00:08:23 Kristin King
Chickens, but that's a complicated conversation, of course.
00:08:25 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah.
00:08:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We have one of the farmers we work with, she said, she really does believe that they come from dinosaurs, which I think makes sense.
00:08:32 Francisco Martin-Rayo
She says, if I lay down too long next to them, they'll peck my eyes out.
00:08:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They don't care.
00:08:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They're terrifying type of animals, which is not what you usually think about when you look at chickens.
00:08:43 Kristin King
Your background, though, let's give a little more detail about your background, because I find it fascinating how you got from your background to where you are here.
00:08:49 Kristin King
So let's talk about your background.
00:08:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, thanks.
00:08:51 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I started a bunch of companies all in technology.
00:08:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
My first company, I started as a senior in undergrad.
00:08:56 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It was a cool television technology company, did a bunch of others, did a lot of work around digital transformation, which is just a fancy way of saying, how do you bring like cutting edge technology to legacy industries?
00:09:05 Francisco Martin-Rayo
None of the industries like being called legacy.
00:09:07 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We learned that.
00:09:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But I also used to import avocados from Mexico at one point.
00:09:11 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And it was the reason, like,
00:09:13 Francisco Martin-Rayo
seeing what the food supply system was like, seeing what was coming along in terms of technological changes and knowing what was happening with climate change that we said, we think we can do something really special in this space and launch Telios.
00:09:25 Kristin King
So it was really kind of a, I saw the need, it's there, so we're going to go for it to launch this company rather than like, oh, this is going to be a really cool profit-driven thing.
00:09:34 Kristin King
It was like betterment of humanity kind of, we need to do this, needs to happen.
00:09:38 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, we're really, I mean this apolitically, right?
00:09:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Like we really ****
00:09:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
kind of climate change, right?
00:09:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We have to get used to living in a world that is 2 to 3 degrees hotter.
00:09:47 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, we hit that threshold recently.
00:09:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But if I say it's two to three degrees hotter, that means at the ends of your distribution, there's some really wonky stuff happening.
00:09:56 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And it's already wreaking havoc on your food supply system.
00:09:59 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And you know, our job is to provide you with technology to predict where those disruptions are happening, predict how the prices are going to change, so you can decrease the level of food insecurity.
00:10:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's pretty brutal otherwise.
00:10:16 Kristin King
Hey, everyone.
00:10:17 Kristin King
Thank you so much for listening and sticking with me these last few weeks.
00:10:22 Kristin King
I'm sure you've noticed that things have been a little quieter on the upload and download front of the podcast.
00:10:28 Kristin King
Well, that's for a really good reason.
00:10:30 Kristin King
I got married.
00:10:32 Kristin King
I just want to say how much I appreciate all the congratulations, messages, and well wishes that came in from around the world.
00:10:39 Kristin King
You all are super duper wicked incredible.
00:10:42 Kristin King
And speaking of incredible, we just passed 13,000 downloads.
00:10:48 Kristin King
That milestone means so much to me.
00:10:50 Kristin King
Every listen, every share, and every kind of comment helps keep these conversations going.
00:10:55 Kristin King
And again, I appreciate it when you tell me you're a listener.
00:10:59 Kristin King
If you're enjoying the show, please remember to like, share, and leave a quick review.
00:11:03 Kristin King
It really helps more people find us and join these important discussions about food and agriculture.
00:11:10 Kristin King
Thanks, and let's get back to the show.
00:11:13 Kristin King
Which is huge because people don't realize actually how insecure a lot of these places in the world are, especially the ones that really have had the most effect by climate change.
00:11:21 Kristin King
I find it really interesting too, because people, when they think climate change, they think of like polar ice caps melting, and they think of polar bears, they think of no other displacement with wildlife.
00:11:29 Kristin King
And yes, absolutely think those things because there's important to think about.
00:11:32 Kristin King
But also how we manage agriculture and where we do it and how we do it and what can grow where.
00:11:38 Kristin King
Great example I have, which is kind of a funny example in a way,
00:11:42 Kristin King
is the southeast of the UK actually has fantastic sparkling wine.
00:11:48 Kristin King
And that is because of climate change.
00:11:50 Kristin King
It actually rivals champagne.
00:11:52 Kristin King
And I realized anybody in France who's listening probably just like threw me across the room and I apologize.
00:11:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, but the Brits are cheering you on.
00:11:58 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They're very excited about this.
00:11:59 Kristin King
And I've had it and I've been there and I've been to the vineyards and they're amazing.
00:12:03 Kristin King
And it's so inspiring to see how people are trying to overcome climate change issues and make good things happen from it.
00:12:10 Kristin King
Now, this is what we have to do is adapt.
00:12:12 Kristin King
And that's what's going to happen.
00:12:14 Kristin King
But in some places, we won't be able to adapt because it will just be gone.
00:12:18 Kristin King
I'm thinking about like fisheries and things like that is really complicated.
00:12:22 Kristin King
And again, not to praise the UK, but they are doing some really great things when it comes to fisheries because we just reached a capacity of overfish or other issues that have happened.
00:12:30 Kristin King
I find it really interesting to see what other really cool, innovative ways we're going to kind of overcome this and realize one, isn't going to sustain the world.
00:12:38 Kristin King
It helps, but it's not like the thing.
00:12:39 Kristin King
It would be interesting to see if we're going to turn towards more
00:12:42 Kristin King
greenhouse or if we're going to turn towards more urban farming and things like that.
00:12:46 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think it'll have to be a combination.
00:12:47 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I mean, it's exactly to your point on how to adapt.
00:12:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
There's a really cool article we wrote on growing mangoes in Italy.
00:12:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's increased, I think, tenfold over the last few years because the climate in the Mediterranean has gotten so much hotter that it's more similar to the places around India, Peru, where you typically grow a lot of these mangoes.
00:13:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so they said, well, we can't grow some of the things we used to grow, olives and olive oil, but we can start growing mangoes.
00:13:11 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think we need
00:13:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
to start thinking about that at a global scale.
00:13:14 Francisco Martin-Rayo
How do we adapt our global food supply chain so that you can start growing things in places that you didn't use to?
00:13:19 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But also, this is really difficult to accept that you're not going to be able to harvest certain crops in places that you're used to.
00:13:25 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Think cocoa, right, and the Ivory Coast and Ghana, as an example.
00:13:29 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Oranges out of Florida.
00:13:30 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Florida used to have 200 million boxes of oranges.
00:13:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's down 98%.
00:13:34 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's not coming back.
00:13:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What can you start growing in Florida that will thrive in this new climatic environment
00:13:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
that they're feeling.
00:13:43 Kristin King
And I realize that some people are going to get a little bit weirded out when I say like, this is why genetically monomatified food is a good thing at times, because if we're going to keep certain crops on the ground, we need heat resistant.
00:13:53 Kristin King
That goes for the slip gene for cattle, that kind of, all those things.
00:13:57 Kristin King
I'm not saying yes or no to it.
00:13:58 Kristin King
I'm just saying this is the innovation that's happening.
00:14:00 Kristin King
You have your opinions about it.
00:14:01 Kristin King
That's what we're going to have to do is more innovation ultimately, and it's going to require tech and data.
00:14:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I completely agree.
00:14:07 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, I mean, it's really hard, right?
00:14:09 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We're really close to a lot of like regenerative agriculture.
00:14:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
departments across major CPGs.
00:14:15 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And even the folks that are doing really incredible work, right, your Unilevers, your Nestles, they're very aware that you're not getting the yields you need if it's just regen.
00:14:23 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then you need that level of genetic innovation, whether we like it or not, right, for some of these crops to be able to adapt or you're just growing fewer of them and they're naturally all more expensive.
00:14:34 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And that's, I am not a fan of saying like food just needs to be more expensive.
00:14:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I don't, I think that's a very incorrect and relatively privileged point of view.
00:14:41 Kristin King
Yes.
00:14:41 Francisco Martin-Rayo
For the vast majority
00:14:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
people like food should not be more expensive, right?
00:14:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We should try and make food as available and as cheaply as humanly possible.
00:14:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
This is where people can eat.
00:14:50 Kristin King
Exactly.
00:14:50 Kristin King
Otherwise, it'd be chaos.
00:14:52 Kristin King
Also, where you were talking about the Italy mango situation, I was thinking about how closely we identify our cultures as humans with food.
00:15:00 Kristin King
We basically just said that at the beginning of the show with, you know, favorite food, favorite food memory, and how people are going to have to change their, let go of their identity as it relates to certain things in order to thrive and to push through.
00:15:10 Kristin King
And it seems like a very,
00:15:12 Kristin King
simple thing to do, but it's not.
00:15:14 Kristin King
It's hard.
00:15:15 Kristin King
If you associate yourself with this is my cultural standard for what food is to me, that's going to be difficult.
00:15:20 Kristin King
That's going to be generations to get through that.
00:15:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Absolutely, yeah.
00:15:24 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And what does it look like if we live in a world where you can't have certain fruits and vegetables available year round?
00:15:29 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Maybe you can't have blueberries whenever you want them because this is relatively new, right?
00:15:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Think of how wonderful it is that you can go to the supermarket at whatever you want at whatever point in time because you have this beautiful global supply chain.
00:15:40 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's what's at risk now.
00:15:41 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It is
00:15:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
also so interconnected.
00:15:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Remember, the United States had a pretty bad raspberry crop, I think two years ago.
00:15:49 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so American buyers went over to Europe and bought basically all the excess raspberries to freeze it, right, to bring it back.
00:15:56 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so the prices of raspberries kind of skyrocketed.
00:15:59 Francisco Martin-Rayo
In Europe, it was pretty problematic.
00:16:01 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's something that if you thought about the business, right, no one in Europe is thinking, God, it looks like the Americans had a really bad harvest.
00:16:07 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I guess my prices are going to go up.
00:16:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But that's how interconnected the food supply chain is now.
00:16:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And that's
00:16:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
how we have to think about it really at that global level and the different levers that happen.
00:16:15 Kristin King
Yeah, and I think we kind of get too originalized a lot with our food supply, and it really is very much a global place.
00:16:21 Kristin King
I mean, we get food from everywhere, like you just said, and people are constantly moving food and buying food overseas and coming over.
00:16:27 Kristin King
I mean, we were talking a lot about, you know, I crave things from places I haven't been in a while and how I would have to probably ship certain things over if I wanted them.
00:16:36 Kristin King
And that's not always a viable thing, let alone to do, because it may not be able to be transferred.
00:16:42 Kristin King
transported or would it be safe for me to get it that way?
00:16:45 Kristin King
The other thing too is to think about is if we're moving food so many places and so fast, but do you track invasive species as well and just how that interacts like on a ship, a bug or whatever and brought this way or vice versa the other way?
00:16:58 Kristin King
Is that something that also you account for in your pricing and data?
00:17:02 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Partly, yeah.
00:17:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We scrape 250,000 sources every 15 minutes.
00:17:07 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Wow.
00:17:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's extraordinary.
00:17:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's pretty cool.
00:17:09 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's insane, actually.
00:17:10 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's global and you can do it in
00:17:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
a bunch of different languages.
00:17:13 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Basically, we built a multi-agent Gen.
00:17:16 Francisco Martin-Rayo
AI platform that looks across 250,000 news sources, is picking up the right articles, is scanning them, tagging them, then looking at other type of metadata, and then using that analysis.
00:17:25 Francisco Martin-Rayo
At one point, we had a really cool avian flu dashboard that allowed us to track in real time, you know, when people started to talk about avian flu, where it was spreading, what the geographic locations were, and how that was going to start impacting the prices of eggs.
00:17:39 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Because chickens typically, the price of chicken is most correlated to the price of feed, except for when you have avian flu issues.
00:17:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so it is interesting, right?
00:17:47 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's almost like not a one-to-one correlation, they're pretty close.
00:17:49 Kristin King
It's sort of like being a detective in a way.
00:17:51 Kristin King
Granted, the AI is doing the heavy lifting in this regard, but it's sort of putting the pieces together to understand, because it's all systems thinking.
00:17:57 Kristin King
It's how we are going to interact with this sphere that we live in.
00:18:00 Kristin King
Everything is a cycle.
00:18:00 Kristin King
Nature is a cycle.
00:18:02 Kristin King
And I find it really fascinating.
00:18:04 Kristin King
This fascinates me because I know as I deal more with cybersecurity issues,
00:18:09 Kristin King
food and agriculture, this is just going to break the system in so many other ways.
00:18:12 Kristin King
And if I'm thinking about this, the bad actors are thinking about this, the hackers, the nation states, the people want to do harm to each other or just disrupt and be jerks anyways.
00:18:20 Kristin King
And they must be looking at similar data points as well.
00:18:23 Kristin King
So it's interesting to me that like force of good and force of bad, when I'm saying that to you, I'm thinking in the back of my head, what do you think has actually kind of broken our system and we need to really start looking at?
00:18:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think the focus is wrong in the way we talk about climate change.
00:18:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think every co-op that happens, COP
00:18:39 Francisco Martin-Rayo
right?
00:18:39 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Every climate week that occurs, 95% of the stuff that comes out is just garbage.
00:18:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's totally useless.
00:18:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We are recommitting to these targets that we're never going to fulfill.
00:18:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And regardless of the amount of money and energy and attention that we've spent over the last 20 years, we have not gotten better at reducing our CO2 emissions per capita, period.
00:18:58 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And it's only going to get worse with artificial intelligence because it needs a lot of energy to do well.
00:19:02 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And that's not going away.
00:19:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And it is just astounding to me that you have all of these senior people and the professional conference circuit, the people who are out there and I don't really know what they live off of, but they're always at the conferences and they're always doing their thing.
00:19:17 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's always the same.
00:19:18 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Well, we have to recommit and we really have to think about greenhouse gases.
00:19:21 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Nothing's changed.
00:19:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Nothing's going to change in the next 20 years.
00:19:23 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's only going to get worse.
00:19:25 Francisco Martin-Rayo
None of the conversation is about how are we adapting to live in this new world.
00:19:29 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And it is just extraordinary to me that you're not having the conversation about where should you be building new homes?
00:19:34 Francisco Martin-Rayo
How should you be thinking about your global food supply chain?
00:19:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What are the things that you should no longer be harvesting, you should no longer be planting?
00:19:40 Francisco Martin-Rayo
How should you think about it much more broadly?
00:19:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
There are people who are going to have to move because the places they currently live in are not sustainable anymore.
00:19:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
How do we support those people through that transition?
00:19:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
None of those conversations are happening at scale.
00:19:52 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And it is just astounding to me that instead you're spending hundreds of billions of dollars and all of the attention on trying to do something that we've already failed at and is only going to get worse.
00:20:02 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I find that just absolutely
00:20:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
absolutely the wrong thing to focus on.
00:20:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Even if you look at like Florida, right, going back to that example, the state government is paying farmers now not to sell their land to real estate developers, but they can't grow oranges on that anymore.
00:20:15 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What they should be doing instead is paying them to be able to do that transition.
00:20:18 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You can't grow oranges anymore, but you can grow pomegranates or passion fruits.
00:20:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Great.
00:20:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's a whole, but to your point, Kristin, then people have to get more excited about maybe having pomegranate juice or passion fruit juice for breakfast.
00:20:29 Kristin King
I'd be excited about it.
00:20:31 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's okay, right?
00:20:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Those are the conversations that I think need to happen.
00:20:35 Kristin King
I think that that's going to come down to a lot of the marketing of these CPGs and other various companies that they're going to have to encourage the consumer to choose differently.
00:20:45 Kristin King
We get on a whole soapbox about this, but consumer behavior is very much driven by these organizations.
00:20:50 Kristin King
Whether you believe it or not, it's very true.
00:20:52 Kristin King
You are marketed all the time.
00:20:54 Kristin King
And it's difficult because you have to make the choices, but what information are you given?
00:20:59 Kristin King
Do you believe that orange juice is the best option for you?
00:21:01 Kristin King
for breakfast.
00:21:02 Kristin King
No, I mean, I don't personally.
00:21:03 Kristin King
It's a lot of sugar for me.
00:21:04 Kristin King
I can't do it.
00:21:05 Kristin King
I mean, occasionally there's a mimosa situation, but that's different.
00:21:09 Kristin King
That's a celebration moment, right?
00:21:11 Kristin King
I mean, not every day.
00:21:12 Kristin King
I mean, if I ever live that lifestyle, come find me.
00:21:15 Kristin King
I'm probably doing really well.
00:21:16 Kristin King
But how do you change that behavior and how do you encourage the margins of different items to change?
00:21:22 Kristin King
You have to get people to realize that they can try something else.
00:21:25 Kristin King
I think this is why it's going to be really important to lean on things like social media and the internet in general is get people to
00:21:31 Kristin King
to be excited about seasons again.
00:21:33 Kristin King
Like, we're going into fall, it's apple season, woo, like get really excited about it.
00:21:38 Kristin King
Or it's strawberry season because it's summer, whatever particular thing is for you.
00:21:42 Kristin King
I think when I, and I have a degree in environmental management, my new listeners know this.
00:21:46 Kristin King
So when I became environmentally conscious and when I started to realize, oh goodness, we have no seasons in the grocery store, I should buy seasonally, I should buy local as much as I can, or encourage local, because you can buy local in the grocery store, it's there.
00:21:59 Kristin King
There's little signs that say it.
00:22:00 Kristin King
And realizing that
00:22:01 Kristin King
That's something that I need to do as a consumer to help, because where your money goes, the trends follow.
00:22:07 Kristin King
And that's really hard.
00:22:08 Kristin King
And understanding the volatility of the system and understanding how it goes.
00:22:13 Kristin King
And the more I talk with farmers and the more I'm there with them and realizing that, wow, we have failed them on so many levels and we have failed our system on so many levels, that the climate change issue is the one of the biggest ones, because if we had gotten that in order, we wouldn't have these conversations now.
00:22:28 Kristin King
We would have a different conversation of how do we sustain it?
00:22:31 Kristin King
And it's frustrating.
00:22:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Just your point, I mean, you vote with your dollars, right?
00:22:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It is the most effective way for you to force companies to change behavior.
00:22:39 Francisco Martin-Rayo
If you are buying more local, more organic, et cetera, you know, farmers will provide for that, right?
00:22:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Because they see that the market exists.
00:22:46 Francisco Martin-Rayo
If you start drinking a lot of pomegranate juice for breakfast, people will start planting more pomegranates.
00:22:51 Francisco Martin-Rayo
There is a beauty, right?
00:22:52 Francisco Martin-Rayo
and the way the market reacts to that.
00:22:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
To your point, you have to be really conscious about the choices you're making.
00:22:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Like almonds, in my mind, are one of the most interesting problems that we have right.
00:23:02 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They're incredibly water thirsty.
00:23:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
The vast majority of the almonds that we grow in California, we're going to China.
00:23:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So what you're basically doing is taking a state that already has a water crisis and you're shipping that water to China.
00:23:14 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then we have almond milk and all that stuff.
00:23:16 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You probably shouldn't be, you know, eating that many almonds or drinking that much almond milk if you care about the water crisis.
00:23:21 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's okay if you do.
00:23:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Right.
00:23:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We're not going to tell you what you should eat and not eat.
00:23:24 Kristin King
No, nobody should be shaming anybody.
00:23:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, but you should at least be informed of the decisions that you're making and the impact they have on the environment around you.
00:23:32 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And I think to your point, that's why it's so important to be able to make informed decisions about what are you eating, what are the impacts, what's in it.
00:23:38 Kristin King
Yeah, totally.
00:23:39 Kristin King
It's such an interesting thing that you say that because people don't have no awareness of what their food is and how it gets to them and what's the actual supply chain length of the situation and where it touches and what it doesn't touch or what's happening.
00:23:52 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And what's the cost, right?
00:23:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What's the labor cost?
00:23:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What's the human cost?
00:23:55 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What's the environmental cost?
00:23:57 Kristin King
Exactly.
00:23:57 Kristin King
And farmers know because they're dealing with it every day and they can't win.
00:24:01 Kristin King
They can't make both sides happy.
00:24:03 Kristin King
They can't make the consumer happy.
00:24:04 Kristin King
They're blamed for prices.
00:24:06 Kristin King
That's not their fault.
00:24:07 Kristin King
They just grow.
00:24:08 Kristin King
They're just the person, you know, that's it.
00:24:10 Kristin King
And it becomes this moment where you start to realize that, oh, I need to make better choices for myself and for my family and for people that I love around me.
00:24:18 Kristin King
That doesn't mean that you need to like put solar panels on your roof and
00:24:22 Kristin King
put a wind turbine out in your backyard or have a victory garden, a gentleman's garden, whatever you call it.
00:24:29 Kristin King
I mean, feel free to grow vegetables if you want.
00:24:30 Kristin King
It's fine.
00:24:31 Kristin King
It doesn't mean you have to turn into something that you think is an extreme one way or the other.
00:24:35 Kristin King
There's A halfway point.
00:24:36 Kristin King
You know, I have vegetables and herbs in my garden.
00:24:39 Kristin King
It's just part of my garden.
00:24:40 Kristin King
It's just something that I have there.
00:24:41 Kristin King
You know, changing our mindset about what we choose to drink.
00:24:44 Kristin King
Why are we drinking it?
00:24:44 Kristin King
Are we drinking it because we have an allergy or is because we think it's healthier?
00:24:48 Kristin King
Okay, so what are the other options that are around that?
00:24:50 Kristin King
The interesting thing about almonds that you brought up is
00:24:52 Kristin King
The bees.
00:24:53 Kristin King
We've got a bee problem and we don't have enough bees and we truck our bees all over the country and we ship them in from Australia to actually pollinate these almonds.
00:25:03 Kristin King
It's crazy.
00:25:04 Kristin King
But the fact that we have to truck bees from one end of the country to the other seasonally for almonds and cherries and other fruits and vegetables is wild to me.
00:25:12 Kristin King
And then now we don't have any bees here because we've got a colony collapse disorder that we still don't understand that we're shipping them in from Australia.
00:25:19 Kristin King
So now Australia has to give us bees.
00:25:21 Kristin King
It's like the system is
00:25:22 Kristin King
It's so complex that it starts to like hurt.
00:25:25 Kristin King
It starts to hurt a little bit.
00:25:27 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's exactly.
00:25:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And I think that's why people often will just give up.
00:25:35 Kristin King
I want to take a moment to talk about something close to my heart.
00:25:38 Kristin King
Food security.
00:25:39 Kristin King
It's no secret that I live in the United States.
00:25:42 Kristin King
And regardless of where you sit on the political spectrum, I think we all can agree on one thing.
00:25:47 Kristin King
No one should ever go hungry.
00:25:50 Kristin King
As we head into the holiday season, I'd like to encourage you to help where you can.
00:25:55 Kristin King
Donate to a local food pantry.
00:25:57 Kristin King
You could find one through findhelp.org, or call a local farm and ask if you can sponsor a farm share for a family in need.
00:26:06 Kristin King
A great place to start would be localharvest.org.
00:26:10 Kristin King
Reach out to your local schools and see if there's a way to support breakfast or lunch programs, or you could be a grocery store buddy or somebody nearby who needs help.
00:26:20 Kristin King
Food insecurity isn't just an American issue, it is a global one.
00:26:23 Kristin King
And while I'm not sponsored by any of these organizations, I believe in using whatever tools we have to make sure everyone has access to food.
00:26:31 Kristin King
Thank you for caring, and now back to the episode.
00:26:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
In fact, we visited, we spend a lot of time on farms, and I was visiting a lettuce manufacturer, processor, and farm in California recently, and they showed us these two plastic bags, right?
00:26:47 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And they said, what is the difference between these two plastic bags?
00:26:49 Francisco Martin-Rayo
One is, and you look at them and they basically look exactly the same.
00:26:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
One is recycled, it costs two or three times as much as the other one, but we're talking about cents, so it's okay.
00:26:59 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And the other one is non-recycled, but it's just perfectly clear and it's a lot cheaper.
00:27:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And they said we would be more than happy as a processor to put our
00:27:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
lettuce into this recycled bag, right?
00:27:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, it costs a little bit more, but really it's not enough to make that big of a difference.
00:27:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But you can see it's, you know, like 18% or so less clear.
00:27:17 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so people won't buy that produce because it looks a little less ugly next to the perfectly clear, non-recyclable bag.
00:27:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But that's a customer preference where you're like, yeah, I want recyclable, but let me go get the really clean, very beautiful like packaging for my lettuce.
00:27:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Or, you know, we want
00:27:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Romaine, I don't know if you've ever been to a romaine farm.
00:27:38 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It will break your heart because you're collecting these beautiful romaine lettuces and you're cutting at least 50% of it off to only keep that really shiny core for no good reason, just because customers prefer kind of a particular color.
00:27:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, because they're very floral looking, aren't they?
00:27:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Very floral, yeah.
00:27:58 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And you could probably cut, I don't know, 15, 20% of it, not 50% of it.
00:28:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so if you go to the field, it's just a field of romaine
00:28:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
tons of romaine, if you will.
00:28:09 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But no one is buying it.
00:28:10 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's incredibly wasteful.
00:28:12 Kristin King
That's so frustrating to think, again, this is maybe why people need to grow their own vegetables, because you would see how an actual head of romaine looked.
00:28:18 Kristin King
It's kind of like broccoli looks very floral and colic for it looks very floral, but people get the little tight bulbs essentially at the store.
00:28:26 Kristin King
You and I are both of the generations that we remember when things weren't wrapped in plastic in the grocery store.
00:28:30 Kristin King
I know that people are going to have feelings one way or the other about plastic or whatever.
00:28:34 Kristin King
It's fine.
00:28:35 Kristin King
I'm not here to tell you right
00:28:36 Kristin King
or wrong.
00:28:37 Kristin King
That's not this episode, maybe another one.
00:28:40 Kristin King
But I will say that it's really maddening that we have to wrap things in plastic now because of food safety.
00:28:47 Kristin King
And ultimately, that's what it comes down to because of the way we've done certain things and certain regulations haven't allowed us to change.
00:28:54 Kristin King
There should be no runoff going into a field that should be fixed.
00:28:58 Kristin King
But then again, if a farmer's doing it correctly, it won't be a problem anyway.
00:29:02 Kristin King
So it's so interesting to me.
00:29:03 Kristin King
And also, there's dirt on your stuff.
00:29:05 Kristin King
It came from the ground, has dirt
00:29:07 Kristin King
Like, I need to get over it.
00:29:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And yeah, just clean it.
00:29:10 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's fine.
00:29:11 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah.
00:29:11 Kristin King
And it's so funny how we.
00:29:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Sometimes there's a few little bugs.
00:29:14 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's all right.
00:29:14 Kristin King
Yeah, whatever.
00:29:15 Kristin King
It's fine.
00:29:15 Kristin King
It's fine.
00:29:16 Kristin King
It's okay.
00:29:17 Kristin King
And it's funny how we get so twisted up and weirded out when we find a bug on our food or anything like that.
00:29:23 Kristin King
It's not pristine.
00:29:25 Kristin King
It's wrong.
00:29:26 Kristin King
It's just if you were hungry.
00:29:27 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It is remarkable, right?
00:29:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That you're like, you don't expect any insects on your food, on your fruits and vegetables, but they're grown outside, surrounded by insects.
00:29:35 Kristin King
I mean, I understand that.
00:29:36 Kristin King
with mold and things like that.
00:29:38 Kristin King
I get that.
00:29:38 Kristin King
obviously, you don't want to eat things with mold.
00:29:40 Kristin King
and I think it's funny that we-?
00:29:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
This kind of cheese is pretty moldy.
00:29:44 Kristin King
I mean, yeah, it's smelly, but yes.
00:29:46 Kristin King
It's so interesting that we've kind of, and I appreciate that there's other companies that are out there that are trying to bring back like ugly fruit food and misfit food or whatever it is.
00:29:55 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Misfit foods and stuff.
00:29:56 Kristin King
Yeah, I appreciate that because we need to love on like wonky looking food because it's still food, it's still edible, it's still delicious.
00:30:03 Kristin King
And this is why a crop sharing association is really cool to join.
00:30:06 Kristin King
and didn't be part of.
00:30:07 Kristin King
I've had the privilege of it a couple of times, and I always got weird food, and it was like, choose your own adventure eating.
00:30:13 Kristin King
It really was.
00:30:15 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, exactly, right.
00:30:17 Kristin King
We could just load it in.
00:30:18 Kristin King
Take a picture of it.
00:30:19 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What do I do with this?
00:30:20 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You know, you take a picture of your pantry and whatever the CSA sent you, and you'll end up with a pretty decent recipe.
00:30:25 Kristin King
I mean, there are many nights where I'm like, I have these three items.
00:30:27 Kristin King
You need to make me a meal.
00:30:28 Kristin King
Like, there's been many of that going on.
00:30:30 Kristin King
It might be that tonight as well.
00:30:32 Kristin King
I don't know, because chicken something seems to be a very common dish for us.
00:30:35 Kristin King
Like, what are we making at chicken something?
00:30:37 Kristin King
I don't know yet.
00:30:37 Kristin King
But it's so interesting because you're a company that is ultimately trying to predict what the prices are going to be.
00:30:44 Kristin King
But it's so many factors into that, social, cultural, climate change for sure, other aspects that are coming, weather, which is tied into, you know, obviously climate change, you know, that's what I was saying really goes without saying.
00:30:56 Kristin King
But it's so interesting.
00:30:58 Kristin King
I'm finding it so interesting.
00:30:59 Kristin King
But was there something about the data when you started getting into it that you were like, whoa, this is really interesting.
00:31:04 Kristin King
This is fascinating when you originally started.
00:31:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's a really good question.
00:31:08 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think the most, when we first started, we set out to just be able to predict agricultural disruptions.
00:31:13 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We said, all right, we can build a platform and we ingest, we basically, we took the world, we broke it down into 14 million hexagons.
00:31:19 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Each hexagon is 2.3 kilometers per side.
00:31:21 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We take daily weather data from each of those hexagons.
00:31:24 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We have that data historically for 20 years, and we forecast it out.
00:31:27 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then the interesting part was, you know, then we built these like machine learning models that were specific to each of the crops.
00:31:32 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It was interesting that it was possible to predict the
00:31:36 Francisco Martin-Rayo
disruptions.
00:31:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But the way we had to do it is one, there was no database of all the places in the world that are growing these commodities for export.
00:31:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So we had to build that from scratch.
00:31:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then there's no database of disruptions.
00:31:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So we had to ask our customers, because for any model, right, you need your output variable.
00:31:52 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What is the outcome that you're training it against?
00:31:54 Francisco Martin-Rayo
If you're training it against disruptions, what is your list of disruptions?
00:31:58 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So we had to build both of those in order to be able to train our models and say like, hey, did you catch 90% of the disruptions?
00:32:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Great, well, what's the list of disruptions?
00:32:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
surprising for us was just how more prevalent disruptions have become over the last few years.
00:32:13 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And you miss it in the nuance.
00:32:15 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so if you look at, if you just look at average precipitation, you'd say, oh, it's still broadly in line.
00:32:21 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But what we're seeing in a lot of regions is, let's say your average precipitation is 30 inches a month, just to make it easier.
00:32:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And you'd say, all right, well, on average, we're getting an inch a month or, you know, 2 inches every 15 day, every second day.
00:32:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What's happened is instead you're getting like 15 inches
00:32:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
on day one, 15 inches on day five, and nothing for the other 28 days.
00:32:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And that's driving a ton of the disruptions that we're seeing globally.
00:32:46 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so you always focus on temperatures.
00:32:49 Francisco Martin-Rayo
droughts and stuff, and that's important.
00:32:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But it is this new erratic precipitation that makes it incredibly difficult for non-irrigated crops to grow.
00:32:58 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And even the crops that are irrigated, you're just spending a lot more money watering when you didn't expect to.
00:33:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah.
00:33:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
There's a big, I mean, we know we talked about the UK.
00:33:06 Francisco Martin-Rayo
There was a huge potato issue in the UK two seasons ago where, you know, the potatoes, they had an okay season.
00:33:11 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Potatoes are very hardy, right?
00:33:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They had an okay season.
00:33:14 Francisco Martin-Rayo
They were, toward the end, it was perfect.
00:33:16 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You're going to get these grade A potatoes.
00:33:17 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And you know what you do with the highest
00:33:18 Francisco Martin-Rayo
quality potatoes, you make them into french fries.
00:33:21 Francisco Martin-Rayo
That's interesting.
00:33:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then there was just a ton of rain.
00:33:23 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so you couldn't harvest because the fields had become muddy.
00:33:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then the potatoes got really fat and bloated.
00:33:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so you lost a percentage in the harvest.
00:33:31 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then when you got these like overly large bloated potatoes and you put them in storage, you lost another 4% to mold.
00:33:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so it was really interesting that you were really starting to see kind of really negative impacts to this erratic precipitation in ways that people don't typically talk about on a climate change perspective.
00:33:47 Kristin King
Well, most people don't even
00:33:48 Kristin King
realize, again, it's just, it's, we have no idea that two years ago was like biblical flooding.
00:33:54 Kristin King
It was, it was awful.
00:33:56 Kristin King
They could not harvest and they lost their crops.
00:33:59 Kristin King
Most everybody, I think everybody kind of lost that year in the UK for the most part in those regions that were hit the hardest.
00:34:04 Kristin King
And it was devastating.
00:34:06 Kristin King
Really?
00:34:06 Kristin King
What do you do?
00:34:07 Kristin King
You have to buy, do you have to buy potatoes from somebody else?
00:34:10 Kristin King
You know, that's the only way to do it.
00:34:11 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Kristin, exactly.
00:34:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
What if that starts to happen instead of every 20 years, every five years?
00:34:16 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We have a huge farmer we support and
00:34:19 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We don't typically work with farmers, right?
00:34:20 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We make, we work with the people who buy and sell the commodities, but we have partnerships with farmers.
00:34:25 Francisco Martin-Rayo
A big one of our partners in Brazil, they have, I think, 10,000 hectares of coffee trees.
00:34:29 Kristin King
Yeah, we're talking about like, these are like helicopter, you have to fly from one into the other farm, it's that big, yeah.
00:34:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Twice for him, he's planted new 5,000, 5,000 new hectares of coffee trees, twice the trees have died because of unexpected frosts.
00:34:43 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Takes five years to get your money back from a coffee tree.
00:34:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And so his big thing is like, this used to happen once every 10
00:34:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
10 or 15 years, and I knew I could get my return on the investment.
00:34:52 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And now I've lost 5,000 hectares of coffee trees twice in five years.
00:34:55 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Is this the new normal?
00:34:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And if it is, how do you possibly keep planting coffee trees?
00:35:01 Kristin King
On top of that, why would you keep doing it?
00:35:03 Kristin King
That's like failure on failure.
00:35:04 Kristin King
That's not good for your mental health and your well-being, let alone your family and all these other things you've got to keep up.
00:35:09 Kristin King
As a farmer, that to me is, you've got to deal with loss.
00:35:13 Kristin King
Like that is, that's a hard human emotion.
00:35:15 Kristin King
I mean, grieving is one of the worst things we do as humans next
00:35:18 Kristin King
shame.
00:35:19 Kristin King
And how do you pick yourself up and keep moving?
00:35:22 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, well, and, you know, from a financial perspective, right?
00:35:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's interesting because it's incredibly expensive to lose your crop.
00:35:29 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But also financial institutions will only loan to you if you are growing the same crops on the same farm that you have historically.
00:35:37 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So he tried to go to the bank and said, I should no longer be growing coffee here, I should grow something else.
00:35:42 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And the bank said, that's really cute.
00:35:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We will loan you the money to buy more coffee trees, but not to do anything else.
00:35:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Yeah, you
00:35:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We need those financial incentives for it to work, right.
00:35:57 Kristin King
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00:36:00 Kristin King
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00:36:06 Kristin King
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00:36:22 Kristin King
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00:37:42 Kristin King
So we're going to have to create coffee tree strains that are, can handle frost essentially is what the only way he's going to ever be able to keep up really with this?
00:37:51 Francisco Martin-Rayo
All he's going to be able to do is, yeah.
00:37:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
But to your point, if you have regular flooding, maybe you stop growing perennials and maybe you start growing rice.
00:37:59 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Hey, we're going to have flooding in this year.
00:38:00 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Let's grow rice.
00:38:01 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And then suddenly you're not just.
00:38:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You're doing champagne in the UK, you're doing rice.
00:38:05 Kristin King
I mean, I don't really think the UK is going to like that since they're very big on their potatoes.
00:38:10 Kristin King
I feel like that's going to hurt A lot.
00:38:12 Kristin King
So again, this goes about changing your culture to rice from potatoes.
00:38:15 Kristin King
I just don't see that.
00:38:16 Francisco Martin-Rayo
No, fish and chips.
00:38:17 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Fish and rice is the new thing.
00:38:18 Kristin King
Well, we could talk about fish all day long.
00:38:20 Kristin King
However, I know that you aren't doing proteins as of yet.
00:38:23 Kristin King
Not yet.
00:38:24 Kristin King
But you will be.
00:38:25 Kristin King
And then there's a whole new world that will open up and it will just be even more wild because the way we do proteins is going to change to the way we adapt and move things.
00:38:33 Kristin King
around like that is insane as well.
00:38:34 Kristin King
Not to mention that the majority of the things that we grow also go towards protein.
00:38:38 Kristin King
So that's really fascinating about too.
00:38:41 Kristin King
So if we can't grow food to feed the animals that feed us, we're in a bigger problem too.
00:38:46 Kristin King
It's not just like we can't get almonds.
00:38:49 Kristin King
We literally can't get feed to these animals and we require protein if you eat meat.
00:38:54 Kristin King
And that's really interesting.
00:38:55 Kristin King
And as you're talking, I'm thinking about all these disruptions and I'm thinking about all the cyber disruptions that I know about and the ones that even the ones that aren't
00:39:03 Kristin King
publicized that I know about.
00:39:04 Kristin King
And this is going to become a bigger problem too, because this is how we go into attack each other moving forward.
00:39:09 Kristin King
And this is how we're going to better way to say it is war.
00:39:12 Kristin King
And it's already happening.
00:39:13 Kristin King
And we're seeing it in real time right now, unfortunately, and how corporations will compete with each other and things like that.
00:39:18 Kristin King
And it's going to be just another layer of data that's going to help your company explain and predict, but also another way that's going to drive prices.
00:39:28 Kristin King
Because we've had cyber interruptions and disruptions already, especially this year, and it's been detrimental.
00:39:33 Kristin King
and pricing and things like that.
00:39:35 Kristin King
Somebody's going to make up the loss.
00:39:36 Kristin King
Is it going to be the consumer?
00:39:38 Kristin King
And if we go in through, God help us, if we go through another pandemic, that's going to drive prices again.
00:39:42 Kristin King
There's so many factors to this data.
00:39:44 Kristin King
I'm super fascinated.
00:39:46 Kristin King
I'm super fascinated.
00:39:47 Kristin King
I hope everybody hears that because this is fascinating information.
00:39:50 Kristin King
But as we're wrapping up, I know this has been a little bit gloomy and doomy a little bit, but I want to know, so you've done, you know, geopolitic risk, you've been in conflict zones, you've been, you're an author of a book, which I'll definitely like in the show notes, and now food systems.
00:40:03 Kristin King
So is this work about really about peace or is it more of like a new battleground for you?
00:40:07 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think it's about solving problems.
00:40:10 Francisco Martin-Rayo
When I, so I'll give you three different examples.
00:40:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
When I was in grad school, I was doing some really cool research on radicalization in refugee camps in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia.
00:40:19 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And when I went to visit and did the study, it turns out that there's very few university scholarships, refugees basically that are in the camps.
00:40:26 Francisco Martin-Rayo
There's a lot of support for primary, secondary education.
00:40:28 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So a lot of folks said, why would I ever go to high school and graduate from high school?
00:40:31 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Even if I make it to university, there's no
00:40:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
for me to get there.
00:40:34 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So I started an NGO that I ran on the side that was giving university scholarships to these refugees.
00:40:39 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So they could go to university and then go back to the camps and teach and it created this really nice life cycle.
00:40:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You know, you identify the problem, you come up with the solution.
00:40:46 Francisco Martin-Rayo
For where it's almost totally different problem I had.
00:40:49 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I read the news.
00:40:50 Francisco Martin-Rayo
This was before podcasts were really big.
00:40:52 Francisco Martin-Rayo
On my phone while driving, I almost crashed into a lamppost.
00:40:56 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And I said, you know, it'd be really good.
00:40:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We could just get a text-to-speech engine on top of an RSS feed.
00:41:01 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I created a mobile app that did that.
00:41:02 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It was called
00:41:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
hear your news and you could pick and choose the articles you wanted from the different RSS feeds that you subscribe to and it read to you in different voices.
00:41:10 Francisco Martin-Rayo
And I think for Helios, it was the same, right?
00:41:12 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We knew that there was a problem around agricultural disruptions, price volatility, and I felt that we could build a solution that would really address it.
00:41:21 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think that's what I'll probably do for the next 50 years, just keep finding some interesting problems and trying to solve them.
00:41:26 Kristin King
I think that's great.
00:41:27 Kristin King
And I love how you've taken your background in a way and pushed it into your present because it's all the knowledge you had before.
00:41:33 Kristin King
or troubleshooting your aptitude and thoughts around how people processes work together in a system.
00:41:39 Kristin King
It's very clearly established here.
00:41:41 Kristin King
It makes sense.
00:41:42 Kristin King
And also the agricultural bit makes sense to me too, because it all flows in the same sphere.
00:41:47 Kristin King
Because if people can't eat, they're going to cause problems and then there's going to be issues.
00:41:51 Kristin King
And I think we're in a really pivotal time, not just with climate change.
00:41:55 Kristin King
I think geopolitically, we're in an interesting time frame globally.
00:41:58 Kristin King
I'm not picking on any country specific.
00:42:00 Kristin King
I think that in this new digital world between
00:42:03 Kristin King
AI and all these other things.
00:42:04 Kristin King
I think we're in a really pivotal time with cyber since we still don't have great protections in place with different things, especially in our food and ag sector.
00:42:11 Kristin King
And I think that this is going to be, I guess, watch this moment.
00:42:14 Kristin King
I feel like I said that a lot on the show.
00:42:16 Kristin King
We're just going to watch the moment.
00:42:17 Kristin King
We're here, but we can't troubleshoot until we see what's going to happen.
00:42:20 Kristin King
And it's going to be really interesting moving forward, especially in the next probably five years, really, ultimately, how things are really going to play out.
00:42:27 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I was just going to say there is a lot of hope with what we're seeing, at least from an AI perspective.
00:42:32 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I know we're worried
00:42:33 Francisco Martin-Rayo
about job losses and that's definitely something we need to worry about.
00:42:35 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We're really worried about climate change, but there is so much potential with artificial intelligence across not just getting better yields with the existing crops you have because you can irrigate better and you can do different fertilizers.
00:42:48 Francisco Martin-Rayo
You can do new genetic sequencing for new, you know, strains of crops that we hadn't thought of before.
00:42:53 Francisco Martin-Rayo
So it really might, I mean, I'm a techno optimist in that sense.
00:42:57 Francisco Martin-Rayo
We really are at that pivotal moment where like, despite some of the things we look at that we go, well, it could be a really bad
00:43:03 Francisco Martin-Rayo
next 10, 15 years.
00:43:04 Francisco Martin-Rayo
I think it might be an extraordinary 10, 15 years where we're able to solve a lot of these problems that we have with technology.
00:43:11 Kristin King
And like you said, if we can change how we do certain things and adapt and adjust a little bit, we can have really high yields in different aspects.
00:43:19 Kristin King
Sure, you may not have something specific on whatever date you need it, but that doesn't mean you won't get, at least it will still be available at some point in the year.
00:43:26 Kristin King
I think that's the goal right now, is to make sure you can still have it at some point.
00:43:29 Kristin King
You just may not have it right when you want it.
00:43:31 Kristin King
And I think people need to
00:43:33 Kristin King
adjust to that and that will cause some tensions and some stress for sure, which I think is such a privileged moment because if you really understood food insecurity, then he wouldn't have a problem with that at all.
00:43:43 Kristin King
Same with water and things like that.
00:43:45 Kristin King
And that's actually something that I'm interested to see what AI is going to predict around water because that is drought as a problem.
00:43:50 Kristin King
We only get one water cycle and it's a big problem.
00:43:53 Kristin King
And I think AI will be able to start predicting how it can help us with that.
00:43:57 Kristin King
Not to mention water is used to cool the data centers that AI is in.
00:44:00 Kristin King
So it's quite an interesting
00:44:03 Kristin King
time we live in, honestly, I still think there's a lot of hope.
00:44:06 Kristin King
I'm not saying there's all gloom and doom.
00:44:07 Kristin King
I just really want us to go thank farmers more and be in that moment and be present with it and be really grateful for the food that's on your table.
00:44:16 Kristin King
Really have that moment with it because it is special.
00:44:19 Kristin King
It is special every time.
00:44:20 Kristin King
I mean, a lot of people sit down and they pray before their meals or they have their religious moments in front of it.
00:44:25 Kristin King
Thank the farmer while you're doing it.
00:44:27 Kristin King
That's the important moment.
00:44:28 Kristin King
Or when you go out to a really amazing meal, thank the chef.
00:44:31 Kristin King
Thank the people that made your food.
00:44:33 Kristin King
that are responsible for because they're part of the chain.
00:44:36 Kristin King
It's all one big connected group.
00:44:38 Kristin King
Thanks so much for being here.
00:44:39 Kristin King
This is like a super fascinating conversation.
00:44:41 Kristin King
I feel so enlightened, like, yes, this is great.
00:44:44 Francisco Martin-Rayo
Thank you so much for having me.
00:44:45 Francisco Martin-Rayo
It's been such a pleasure.
00:44:54 Kristin King
A huge thank you to Francisco for joining me and sharing how his company, Helios AI, is using technology to make our global food systems more resilient.
00:45:04 Kristin King
And to you.
00:45:05 Kristin King
Thank you for listening, for sharing, and being part of this community.
00:45:09 Kristin King
If you enjoyed today's episode, remember to like, comment, and share.
00:45:13 Kristin King
It really does help others find the show and keeps these conversations growing.
00:45:17 Kristin King
You can also check out my Substack and the Bytes & Bytes podcast website for additional content, behind the scenes, stories, and updates from our guests.
00:45:26 Kristin King
Link is in the show notes.
00:45:28 Kristin King
Until next time, stay safe, stay curious, and we'll see you on the next one.
00:45:33 Kristin King
Bye for now.
